Home > Actualités > THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE

THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE

TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 347 NM

EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD

AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTI-

SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH

PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A 10 NM WIDE EYE FEATURE.

THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE

FEATURE VISIBLE IN MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 151210 89GHZ

MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH A CLEARLY DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE. THE

AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION ENCIRCLING THE

EYE FEATURE WITH FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE WESTERN SEMI-

CIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 90 KNOTS BASED ON MULTI-

AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.0 TO T5.5

(90 TO 102 KNOTS), FROM PGTW AND KNES RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL

INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A MULTI-PLATFORM SATELLITE WIND

ANALYSIS ESTIMATE OF 88 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS IS IN

AN AREA WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS)

AND WARM (28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS

SHOWS THAT THEY SYSTEM HAS GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND A POLEWARD

OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE MID-LATITUDE

WESTERLIES. TC 06S HAS BEEN QUASI STATIONARY FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS.

THE SYSTEM IS NOR FORECAST TO TRACK TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST UNDER THE

INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH, AND ANOTHER

STR BUILDING OVER EASTERN MADAGASCAR. AS THE STR TO THE SOUTH

BUILDS, IT WILL ALSO TRANSIT TO THE WEST AND TAKE OVER AS THE

PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE CAUSING TC 06S TO TRACK MORE TO THE

SOUTHWEST AFTER TAU 36. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT HAS ALLOWED THE

SYSTEM TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE PERSISTENT

FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU

36, EVENTUALLY REACHING A PEAK OF 110 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 36, THE

SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS VWS INCREASES AND THE

SYSTEM TRACKS INTO AN AREA OF COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE

SYSTEM HAS WILL TRACK TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST INITIALLY AND THEN

GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. DUE TO THE STRONG AGREEMENT OF THE

MODEL GUIDANCE, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-

MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE

HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z,

160900Z AND 161500Z.//

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